Windows 10: The PC is broken: Time to fix the business model or quit

All too many people don't understand that current performance is no indicator of future trends. People who buy high and sell low learn that lesson the hard way (ask all the people buying over-inflated houses in 2006, the market looked great to them).

Of course a bubble bursting is something that catches a lot of people.

As Tablets and Phones become more powerful, more and more people need fewer PC's. Who would have thought that almost nobody would own a land line telephone 10 years ago? Who could have predicted that you could watch TV on your phone and that Streaming cable services would actually surpass network television to those devices?

Hell, I blame the decline in book sales (both paper and e-books) on phones, because people are no longer bored. I used to crack open a book when I was bored as a teen and young adult. Now, everyone starts playing candy crush or swiping left and right. They're huge time sinks without much redeeming value (unlike books). Unless it's a huge mega-hit like Harry Potter or Game of Thrones, nobody wants to read it anymore, and publishers aren't interested in promoting things that aren't going to sell tons of copies.

Desktops ARE dying, and while there might be short-lived spikes due to new technology releases, it won't last.

 

For years, I built PC's, that could run off and hide from what was selling in the Big Box Stores, but I don't do that anymore, except for myself. Now I like to pick up old PC's that other people and even computer shops have thrown away, and I refurbish them so that they run faster than they did when they were brand new.
I now have 14 desktop PC's and five Laptops and they all run much better than they did when they were brand new.

I cringe, when someone comes on a forum crying that their PC is running SO SLOW. Every speed secret that I use, is out there floating around on the internet. Using those tweaks, I can double the speed and efficiency of any stock PC, or Laptop.
Slow PC's are either the result of ignorance or laziness. I can fix the ignorance, but not the laziness.

*Cool

 

I look forward to seeing phones/tablets with 50"+ screens. *Biggrin

Developers are still going to need multiple giant monitors.
Most IDEs are ridiculously difficult to use on a single monitor, even if it is 1920x1080.

Try creating sequence diagrams (using something like StarUML) on a 1280x1024 monitor.
It's an awfully painful activity.

When I look back over the past 30 years, I can't believe I was able to anything useful on the tiny monitors we used to have (e.g. 320x200).

 

Yea, lot to be said for decent screens and keyboards. And no batteries/charging.

 

The problem is surely:

What to use these devices for?

Either it's all been done already in terms of "Killer applications", or programmers have grown fat and lazy on IDEs that at the end of the day produce 2-bit apps to put on various platform "Stores" that the essential feature is you can run them on your phone.

With 64-bit address spaces and 8GB RAM and more storage than you can throw a giant redwood at, there's no need for ingenuity in programming, like there was when you had to fit your both OS and program and live data in 4MB RAM and save it all to a 1.44MB floppy when done.

It's not that there aren't clever folk out there, there's just nothing left to be clever for.

 

One needs to be wary when talking about PC gaming...

It is true that PCs trump consoles, however, it breaks down into PC (desktop & laptops) vs mobile vs console. The desktop is still king for gaming, with about a 55 PC/ 45 mobile split. But the money numbers don't really talk about hardware, but rather software sales. So when one says gaming is increasing, yes that is true, but PC desktop sales are still on the decline and the forecast is this trend will continue.

Also, I suspect the number one upgrade for most gamer's are graphic cards, this is what rules gamer's, not new machines or OS. At least it is for me.

Just to be clear.

 

Developers are a tiny fraction of the PC using population, as are others that are Desktop dependent, such as CAD/CAM designers. However, one need only look at the Surface Pro to see developers using this for real development. One can cast their screen to a 50" TV quite easily, or plug into a dock to use a keyboard and mouse with multiple monitors.

In fact, I use a Yoga 900 regularly for software development.

 

As a now retired design engineer with extensive CAD/CAM experience and owning a Surface Pro 4, I find it difficult to agree with your above summation....what would be the point of all this separate hardware when all you need is a single desktop with a single monitor.

The Surface Pro 4 has some wonderful attributes, but personally any sort of complicated design would be beyond its remit.

 

It really is simple

Desktops will always remain the workhorse in offices for obvious reasons.

Laptops are pretty much the de facto home use standard now where pcs are still needed (hell you can hardly even find a desktop on sale in most UK primary outlets). In home, people like convenience of portability. It is probably only high end game users who build their own pcs who are the primary market for desktops now.

Tablets, phones etc are for rest of general use- light internet, games, video use.

In the end, the markets will reach a new equilibrium until a new game changer comes along.

 

Gartner is notoriously unreliable. They have been wrong on many things for several years. I find it amazing they are still trying to say the PC is dead after completely blowing the whole tablet industry prediction. The only thing that is changed is that we hold onto our PCs longer because we can. What is true is that you can do more on a PC that has a smaller footprint today than previously. I'm not talking about mobile devices I'm talking about actual PCs, such as ultra laptops. (You can argue these are mobile devices, but the same argument was made for luggable's back in the 80s so nothing has really changed there.) However, I can tell you from a business environment that translates into needing docking stations an additional monitors. Nobody wants to try to do their job from a 12 to 14 inch laptop screen. They also are ignoring the growing gaming industry, YouTube/video industry, and the traditional industries such as engineering. All of these groups need powerful computers. They also are ignoring the entire server industry, a large majority of which runs on Intel based machines today. (A.k.a. the ever-growing cloud.) So I think the question is really does the industry need to change its model anymore then it changed its model during the 90s or the first decade of the century? I don't see any red flags here. The hardware industry has always run on thin margins and ever-changing standards. So in all honesty things are just status quo.

 

It's not really that simple. In fact, I currently work for a company that has issued laptops and docking stations to every one of its workforce (1000+ employees). I know of several others that do the same. My current laptop is an HP ZBook with 32GB of memory and an i7. I have 3 monitors, attached to my docking station. It's a fine development machine.

My personal laptop is a Yoga 900, with 16GB of memory and an i7. It's also very capable.

That's nice of you to just say that, but you haven't given any reasons why you think that is the case. If you think the video is not capable enough, then you might have an argument, but the machine itself is more than capable otherwise. an i7 with 16GB of memory should be plenty for all but the largest projects in CAD/CAM.

I'm not sure I follow about "all the separate hardware", since you would have to have all that hardware with a desktop as well.

I'm not sure they "blew it" with tablets, as tablets are still very popular. The problem is that phones became far more capable and lots of people just bought Phablets rather than tablets (See the popularity of the Note 7, for instance).

Gartner, like anyone, is guessing based on existing data. And it's hard to predict based on data that doesn't yet exist.

Nobody is ignoring the server industry. Servers are not desktops. Just like laptops are not desktops, even if they're used as one. You're right about docking stations, but I can have a docking station at work and home rather than have to have two computers. You need to buy those monitors with a desktop PC anyways, so I don't see why the complaints about them.

Also, let's be clear here. Nobody has said the PC is dead as in nobody will ever use one. What they're saying is that their use is going to be limited to specific purposes that require them, rather than as the default computing purchase. The Desktop form factor will no longer be the staple of the computing industry profit margin.

 

Mystere....your above quotes....
(1)..."That's nice of you to just say that, but you haven't given any reasons why you think that is the case. If you think the video is not capable enough, then you might have an argument, but the machine itself is more than capable otherwise. an i7 with 16GB of memory should be plenty for all but the largest projects in CAD/CAM."

(2)..."I'm not sure I follow about "all the separate hardware", since you would have to have all that hardware with a desktop as well."


My replies....
The Surface Pro 4 i7 processor has a clock speed throttled to 2.2ghz.....why?.... due to its size.....lack of heat dissipation.
The desktop i7 6700k has a clock speed of 4.0ghz....which is superior in performance....with adequate cooling available due to its size.
With the need for rendering in CAD....enormous resources being needed 32GB memory being the norm.
A 30" screen which would allow four separate intricate partitions to cross reference....impossible on a tablet.

Answering your second point....A tablet, docking station and a 50" TV are perfect for giving demonstrations.
Trying to work on a tiny tablet and a 50" TV using the same data on both at the same time would test the patience of a saint.

 

You do realize the site has a perfectly good quoting system, why invent your own?

Having said that, CAD/CAM has been being done for 30 years. 32 GB wasn't "the norm" until relatively recently, 16GB is probably fine for (as I said above) all but the largest of projects.

I was responding to someone elses comment about 50" screens, and how tablets couldn't use them. You do realize that you can have multiple 30" high resolution monitors plugged into your Surface. The surface dock has two displayports that can both drive 30" displays. In fact, a friend of mine is driving 2 34" ultra widescreen displays on his.

Surface Dock

I use docking stations all day long, I don't understand why you think they are inadequate.

As for the CPU, the surface book (the current top of the line) has a base cpu of 2.6 with 3.4 turbo. Any "throttling" that may occur is due to heat, so if you keep it cool, no throttling will occur. Still, that's really beside the point. No, it can't compete with a top of the line desktop maxxed out, but it can certainly do a fine job for an average CAD/CAM user, or programmer, or gamer.

Most of the CAD/CAM people I've worked with are always complaining that their companies aren't giving them modern hardware with enough specs as it is. So I fail to see how a top end Surface Book, which surpasses most of the desktop hardware that most people are still using would be "insufficient".

 

Due to its small size completely impractical, as already explained in my previous posts.
I note you always quote a third party when giving an opinion regarding CAD/CAM users.
Mine is based on personal experience.

As for your first sentence post #26...a typical fault finding flippant remark.... what is design if it isn't invention?

 

Where's the "Like" button? This is bang on.
*Smile