Windows 10: Windows now accounts for mere 10% of the Microsoft’s revenue.

Hi there
Actually just look at the sales of Microservers -- these are CHEAPER than a typical desktop, quite flexible and since designed as servers from the outset are very robust, reliable and consume little power. The "Little cubes" are selling really well.

Sales of these to HOME users has actually increased quite a bit -- they make excellent NAS servers too -- I've got TWO of these (HP GEN 8 PROLIANT MICROSERVER. You can run a desktop OS on these too if you need to.

They have a very small footprint so can easily be hidden away unnoticed into small storage spaces and rarely once set up need to be re-booted.
OK not for Gamers as there's only limited expansion capability but you can add a decent Graphics / RAID card and with easy accessible HDD Bays why would I even THINK of a desktop any more -- for my needs the microservers are just FINE. !!

The new generation of ultra thin laptops is great too - finally they've got away from the 1366 X 768 video screens even on smaller models and the Surface Pro / book 4 is absolutely fantastic - these will be around for a long time.

Classical computing still has its place -- just not so much in future as the smart phone can do a lot of easy stuff that used to require a computer -- but try and prepare a demo / create a complex spreadsheet or design a complex building or engineering tool on a mobile phone --- forget it !!!!

Cheers
jimbo

 

I've seen people claim that you can do video editing in the Cloud.

If that is true, then basically you'd only need a terminal-style machine (i.e. a Chromebook-type device).
If you didn't have enough grunt, you'd just have to pay for a more expensive virtual Cloud server (and maybe more Internet bandwidth).

Businesses that needed actual PCs would just write off the purchase cost (and there's Depreciation too) so the cost would be basically irrelevant.
In First World countries, PCs cost much less to buy, than employees cost to hire, train and pay.

 

Hi there
they've been pushing Thin Clients ever since the early 1970's -- they work OK in some situations but aren't universally popular and the infrastructure can be more expensive to maintain than conventional PC's.

Running a decent VDI doesn't come cheap - especially in Maintenance costs.

Cheers
jimbo

 

I think that ALL platforms will slowly do away with windowing applications, or legacy applications. I'll tell ya, with my girlfriend's iPad and a bluetooth keyboard, I can get a LOT of productive stuff done. And I was even testing out a nice Chromebook the other day. Now I don't like the idea that there are really no locally installed applications (I want more control over the location and placement of program and system files), but most users won't care. You can do a lot with tablets and Chromebooks. Only a scant few of us will care to have traditional OS. We do not represent the majority in ANY way whatsoever.

 

I dual boot and just finished a couple of weeks playing PoE on OSX almost without stop. During that time I didn't particularly miss using Windows instead (although prior to that I'd not used OSX at all for years). Only once I had to do some work requiring Windows (I needed Cisco VPN and an emulator) so booted back into it for the duration and then went back to finish the game...

Work is a bit light at the moment as you can tell...

Whether windowing OS's disappear in the short term I doubt (it is convenient not to get stuck with only one task at a time) but how or where data is stored or how a program works will become less important as anyone who uses a phone can tell you.

For some reason though, now I've finished I'm back on Windows again. Don't know why really.

You got that right *Wink

 

MS has a huge contract from US Defense Department.
I'm sure they don't feel too bad about the 10%.

 

Agreed.

However, what do you think politicians will do, after their "24/7 Monitoring" laws fail to stop the next terrorist attack?
They'll blame the ordinary citizen.

They'll claim that everyone is using encryption, VPNs, TOR, etc. to thwart the government.
Their solution(s) will inevitably lead to dumb terminals and a Cloud-based OS."The only way to make you peasants tow the line, is to take away various pieces of hardware and software."
"Don't worry you can buy these new "Officially Approved" devices."

 

False assumption. The markets can and do coexist. Phones, tablets and other devices do not spell the demise of the desktop or laptop. Workstations are still preferred for, well, work, after all. Even thin-clients and 0-clients have not replaced the venerable personal computer. Now I have a SmartPhone, Tablet *and* a workstation of some kind. Funny how that works.

I love that the demise of the personal computer has been continually talked about since the first modern tablets and smart phones arrived.

Cloud computing as 'aaS' as-a-Service business models will attempt to run on any platform including all of the above.

 

Do they? I was reading that the Surface had just been certified here Surface Surface now approved for U.S. Department of Defense - Windows 10 Forums so I checked what else had - all recent iPhones, Galaxy S5 and S6, and all sorts of odd (mainly quite old) devices that pass the certification process.

You can look here Approved Products List (APL) Testing & Certification or perhaps here DISA | DoD Mobility Program

Being allowed to buy something off the company list (in this case the US government) is not the same as an order.

If however you have found out that some large percentage of MS income is from the DoD (rather than what is described in this thread) then please do share the details.

Perhaps with a link with some justification.

 

Hi there

I just love all these Ipad users who think they can do really productive work on them -- well maybe you can do SOME office type work --article for a magazine for example (whether electronic or for paper type) -- even though for cutting / pasting volumes of text nobody has come out with anything that even approaches a mouse for ease of use.

Obviously they haven't tried to do 3D-CAD with say exploded drawings / architects plans, video editing, Oil exploration geology analysis etc etc.

There's 1000's of things you still need a traditional computer for - whatever the OS is. Would you want to get on a plane where the major components were designed and simulated on a 7 inch Ipad !!!.

Cars haven't meant the death of the Horse, Sailboats co-exist with huge ships etc etc. These other devices are more convenient for some things so it's only natural that computers (traditional ones) will go back to things that are most suited for them while casual surfing etc can be done easily on smaller portable devices.

Cheers
jimbo

 

Yes and I fared well using vinyl in the 90s and in the early 2000s when vinyl en masse was considered "unavailable". But downtown record store shopping and import purchases help me avoid CDs. Still even I didn't consider LPs a real market force.

I understand that many many applications (as in types of use) need desktop computers to complete well. I'm just saying that I'm amazed how functional tablets and chromebooks (with the right accessories) can indeed be VERY useful. Moreover, I think there will be a lot of tasks that will actually change on some level in order to fit within the confines or abilities of these newer devices. Letter and documents are needed less for some things, and less of a paper trail and more data transfers and emails will reduce the need for word processors for example.

 

Well i am curious here:

MS is not getting much money for Windows10, since free...

But how about the billions of downloads who gets the money for this?

Jeff

 

For the apps in the Microsoft Store MSFT gets a %. I've heard some say as high as 30% of the cost of the app. Seems excessive, but I don't know the exact number. It is one of the reasons why most windows development is still offered outside the store, as I understand it. Well that and the cost of retraining your Win32 developers and converting your code, and supporting your legacy Win32 code. Little things. As for free apps, I don't know if there is a flat fee there or not. So many apps can be free and have embedded ads. I imagine there is some skimming there as well.

 

Assumptions have nothing to do with it, only profit margin.

Commercial niche markets exist because the suppliers have large profit margins.

If a manufacturer can sell 10M phones per year and make $10 profit per sale, that's $100M.
If they can only sell 1M PCs per year, they have to make $100 profit per sale to equal $100M.

How much profit does an OEM make on a $300 desktop?
How much money does it cost component makers to design, market and stockpile a dozen slightly different motherboards?

MS is willing to forgo a potential income of several billion dollars per year by not selling updates for XP (100M PCs x $50/yr).
I willing to bet that they wouldn't have to spend much money ($10M?) on programmers to do the job.

MS could still sell millions of copies of W7 and every sale would be pure profit, but they don't.

The average user doesn't like "computers", unlike (possibly the majority of) TenForums members.
If they only use Facebook and write a few Word docs, a terminal is more than adequate.

Governments (specifically Acronym Agencies) will eventually start pushing manufacturers to remove capabilities from devices by claiming their latest stupid plans have been thwarted by (for example) encryption.
See the current US (and other) governments vs Apple debacle.

Apparently no crimes were ever solved before the release of Smart Phones.

 

Actually this is not what we are seeing now. If you see what is selling, tablet sales are dropping off, as well as PCs.(Look at iPad sales year over year. Apple isn't doing so great.) The market is saturated. 2in1 sales are increasing, a market Microsoft created. That's because a 2in1 is literally a laptop and a tablet. So most people who need everyday computing are going to jump on this option because it is cheaper. I love my little Lenovo 11 inch 2in1 for reading and using on vacations. I think 15+ inch tablets though in a 2in1 are a bit awkward. (Of course I still have my uber tower PC to keep my geek cred.) There will still be millions of tablet users. There will still be 100's of millions of businesses that need notebooks at a minimum. I work in the financial industry and the kind of numbers we crunch can't be done on an iPad/tablet, unless you are planning on 4 hour lunches everyday while your excel reports crunch away, and seven day work weeks. Not to mention the power house machines we in IT need for our jobs.

As for prices they won't go up too much. First, because with standardization, the parts that go in a 2in1 go into an ultrabook or laptop. The parts that fit in a tower fit in a mid-range server. Graphics cards are the exception, but then enthusiast cards have always been expensive. Also, with a saturated market, if the prices increase in an effort to boost the bottom line people will simply hang on to their devices longer because they can, and in many cases already are.

Personally, I think there isn't a next big thing for the PC market. We have every shape and size there is. The market expansion will be found in niche products that make sense to interface with our devices. I can control many features on my car via my phone, and get monthly reports on its health. Other folks control their home security, hvac etc.

While Microsoft and its marketing of Windows 10 has been a pretty big fubar, their vision is not. The future is found in the services and the devices that use those services. I'm just thankful to have been in this industry long enough to see it go from roach chips, jumper switches, and soldering wires to where it is today.