Moore's Law

Discus and support Moore's Law in Windows 10 Support on Windows 10 Forums to solve the problem; I am not sure how much Moore's law might apply to storage, if at all, but it sure seems to me like the storage world has really frozen of late. Used to... Discussion in 'Windows 10 Support' started by musiclover7, Jul 21, 2015.

  1. musiclover7 Win User

    I am not sure how much Moore's law might apply to storage, if at all, but it sure seems to me like the storage world has really frozen of late. Used to be that every few years, hard drives would double in size, but it has been about 4 years or so since I bought my first 4tb hard drive, and that size is still holding strong as the max at a decent price point, and I dare say I think I paid less for mine 3 years ago than I would if I bought the same drive today (I paid 130 bucks for mine 3 years ago from newegg). I know we have made great advancements in the realm of flash storage, and I also get that this is the direction of the future, at least for now. Still, I keep hoping to be able to buy a moderately priced 6-8TB monster any week now, and yet it seems like years are ticking by, and that product is not showing itself. Anyone have any insight into what is taking place on the storage front? Will we ever see 8Tb monsters, and if so, how long till then? Inquiring folks who need to expand their storage arsenal, would like to know.

    :)
     
    musiclover7, Jul 21, 2015
    #1
  2. Harold Niamut - Wakkaman Win User

    Moore's Law expires - Introduce Law of Microsoft

    Seems we shorty won't be able to downsize circuits any smaller anymore and surely not every 2 years.

    So, how about starting to downsize all our Immense OS's, Business Applications, Laptop/Tablet/Phone Apps, Cloud access technology etc. while at the same time enhance functionality for all its users. Why is it that every time I wish for an upgrade or some
    company push that thru my throat I need more Processing Power more Memory etc.

    I am sure that if the industry, specialists and scientists really focus on making the core of the intelligence in Apps leaner and meaner to create smaller, faster and more reliable Apps, we could start something to replace Moore's Law.

    As you, Microsoft professionals are one of the leading companies in the game... Why dont you take the responsibility to really move the focus to smarter, smaller, more efficient Apps interoperable with all devices we use and all IoT-objects we wish to control.

    Is it possible to double every 2 months the speed of Apps on the same hardware / device? Is so, called it "the Law of Microsoft".

    Regards, Harold

    Ps. I like W10 - finally something refreshing after years...
     
    Harold Niamut - Wakkaman, Jul 21, 2015
    #2
  3. patc---01 Win User
    graphics accelerator

    Moore's law says it probably already is, however there could be a problem with the power consumption of more powerful video processors ;)
     
    patc---01, Jul 21, 2015
    #3
  4. Ztruker Win User

    Moore's Law

    8TB gives you a single point of failure, ideal for losing more data with a single hardware failure. Heck 4GB is like that as well.

    I think the way to go is get a decent NAS and mount multiple smaller (2GB) drives. Any decent NAS should support 4 drives and more.

    The next size leap will be a different technology I think.
     
    Ztruker, Jul 21, 2015
    #4
  5. Gary Win User
    Moore's Law is sorta out dated and N/A anymore.
     
  6. Mystere Win User
    I believe I saw 6TB drives for about $250, that's not that bad really.

    It's not double, but at a certain point, physics kick in. Just like we can't really go above 4Ghz processors really very easily, they are now concentrating on making them more efficient, and adding more cores.

    Flash has been halving in price every so often, so that is where Moore's law is mostly kicking in.
     
    Mystere, Jul 21, 2015
    #6
  7. Mystere Win User
    Not really, it's still applicable. It's just not what most people think It means. It doesn't mean things get faster every 6 months. It means the number of transistors double every 6 months. That doesn't always equal faster.

    EDIT:

    There's even decent priced 8TB drives...

    Amazon.com: Seagate Archive 8 TB Internal Hard Drive: Computers Accessories

    $269
     
    Mystere, Jul 21, 2015
    #7
  8. ARC1020 Win User

    Moore's Law

    I think you summed it up yourself, the long term future for spinning drives is bleak, with solid-state storage being where the party's at, so for Moore's Law the place to look for the next big thing is data transfer speeds, rather than storage size. Moving 8TB (or more) of data around over SATA or USB 3.0 sounds like torture.

    I know it's of no use to you at the moment as you're after size, but I think these are the next step for storage.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B...=sr_1_9&sr=8-9
     
    ARC1020, Jul 21, 2015
    #8
  9. LMiller7 Win User
    In the latter years of the 20th century the clock rate of CPUs was rising rapidly. When the Intel 30486 CPU was introduced in 1989 it has a maximum clock speed of 50 MHZ. Little more than a decade later in 2001 the Pentium 4 had reached 2000 MHZ. I am sure many people expected this would continue for years to come. But it could not.

    It is now 2015 and commercial CPUs haven't gone much beyond 4 GHZ. To reach this level there were meny problems that needed tp be solved. But they were of a practical nature and overcome with better technology. Current problems are of a more fundamental nature. In particular there are physical limits to how small CPU transistors can be built and how fast you can move electrons. When you try to push the limits there are a multiplicity of factors that were previously of little importance but have now become overwhelming problems.

    There are similar types of problems in magnetic storage. There really only 2 basic ways that storage can be increased:
    1. Increase the number of platters. This has been done but the costs are high and creates many practical problems.
    2. Increase storage density. This been continuing but the problems are mounting.

    To go much further new technology is needed. At the present time nobody knows what form it will take. In the short term it will likely be some type of flash technology as is used in SSDs. In the longer term it will likely be something else.
     
    LMiller7, Jul 21, 2015
    #9
  10. Gary Win User
    Then what is the point of adding more transistors. I thought that they were into some new kind of material.
     
  11. cyberhash Win User
    The point of adding more transistors is to keep technology moving whilst not increasing the physical size of cpu. Without die shrinks then cpu's would be the size of your front door to your house by now.

    That's why my 32 Domegemegrottebyte hard disk based on 12 femtometer technology is still only 2.5".

    P.S : This message is from the future *Tongue
     
    cyberhash, Jul 21, 2015
    #11
  12. Mystere Win User
    More transistors do more things. CPU's are incredibly complex things, for instance. However, this can be deceiving because.. in order to relate to Moores law, you have to compare apples to apples.

    As an example, the first Core i7 "Bloomfield" had 731 Million Transistors. The Haswell-E 8 core i7 has 2.6 Billion. The XBOX one SoC has 5 Billion. The 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 has 5.5 Billion.

    See Transistor count - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    However, moore's law has slowed... Intel is now admitting that it's closer to every 2.5 years rather than 2 years that transistor count doubles.

    Moore's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
    Mystere, Jul 21, 2015
    #12
  13. Geneo Win User

    Moore's Law

    Magnetic storage has reached the supetparamagnetic limit - a physical limit on how small you can make magnetic domiains that can still retain their magnetic state. Further increases in density requires new technology like helium drives to pack in more platters, shingled recording ( which has slow write performance) , or HAMR.
     
    Geneo, Jul 21, 2015
    #13
  14. lehnerus2000 Win User
  15. musiclover7 Win User
    Great stuff guys! Appreciate the thoughts and feedback. I guess I was correct than and we really have sort of hit the limits with today's technology. Yes, you can pick up an 8TB drive today, but the price is roughly double what I paid for a 4TB drive 3.5 years ago, so there really is not much movement forward, which was the nagging sense I was having. The dollar to byte ratio if you are after shear size is roughly the same. I did a little searching and came across this interesting Forbes article which suggests potentially huge improvements coming in the future:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomcough...in-on-storage/

    Who knows though?
     
    musiclover7, Jul 22, 2015
    #15
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Moore's Law

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